The Demise of the Aral Sea: How Central Asia's Cotton Industry Devastated the World’s Fourth Largest Lake:
As of 2022, Uzbekistan is the eighth-largest cotton producer globally, and Turkmenistan ranks tenth. However, few are aware that this "white gold" of Central Asia has driven the Aral Sea, once the world’s fourth-largest lake, to the brink of disaster. Just six decades ago, in the 1960s, the Aral Sea was a vast expanse of water, covering an area of 68,000 square kilometers—nearly the size of the Republic of Ireland. Fast forward to 2021, and satellite images reveal that over 90% of its water has vanished, leaving behind only a fraction of what once was.
The Origins of the Crisis:
To understand this catastrophe, we must first explore the water sources that sustained the Aral Sea. Historically, around 80% of its water came from two major Central Asian rivers, the Amu River and the Syr River. The remaining 20% was contributed by rainfall. Despite being located in a desert region, where evaporation rates were high, the Aral Sea remained stable due to the consistent inflow from these rivers.
However, the situation began to change in the 1940s when Soviet leader Joseph Stalin launched the "Great Transformation of Nature" plan. This ambitious project aimed to develop land and boost agriculture across the Soviet Union, including Central Asia. It involved the construction of hundreds of canals diverting water from the Amu River and Syr River to irrigate the barren lands of the region. One of these canals, the Karakum Canal, which was dug from the Amu Darya in 1954 and completed in 1967, irrigates about 1.25 million hectares of land in Turkmenistan.
During the Soviet era, an extensive network of canals was introduced in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to facilitate cotton cultivation. While these projects increased agricultural activities, they were largely inefficient. It is estimated that 30% to 70% of the water
The Aftermath:
Historically, the Aral Sea helped moderate the extreme climate of the region. In winter, warm vapors from the sea would temper the harsh Siberian winds, while in summer, the sea absorbed solar radiation, keeping temperatures bearable. Today, with the sea mostly gone, the region’s climate has become more severe, with temperatures swinging to greater extremes.
The retreat of the Aral Sea has also created the Aral kum Desert, characterized by high salinity. When desert storms sweep across Central Asia, they carry this salty dust to nearby agricultural lands, degrading the soil. To combat this, more water is drawn from rivers to flush out the salts, further depleting the water that could have replenished the Aral Sea. Additionally, the use of pesticides and other chemicals in agriculture, which eventually end up in the rivers and then in the sea, has led to toxic chemical-laden dust storms, posing health risks to the local population.
These dust storms also accelerate the melting of Central Asian glaciers, contributing to global warming. This has prompted upstream countries to launch projects to store and divert more water, further reducing the flow to downstream countries and the Aral Sea. Recently, the Taliban government in Afghanistan initiated the construction of the Kushtepa Canal, which plans to divert 10 billion cubic meters of water annually from the Amu Darya. This has raised concerns in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, further straining relations between these countries.
Efforts to Save the Aral Sea:
Efforts to save the Aral Sea have been made, albeit with limited success. In 1987, a protocol was established to allocate 63.6 billion cubic meters of water from the Amu Darya to Central Asian states and Afghanistan, reserving the rest for the Aral Sea. However, these measures were not enough, and the sea continued to shrink.
Kazakhstan, with the support of the World Bank, has made some progress in reviving the North Aral Sea by improving water management in the Syr Darya. In 2005, these efforts led to an 18% increase in the lake’s water level, which in turn boosted fishing activities. While these initiatives have provided some relief, they are far from sufficient.
A Glimmer of Hope?
Interestingly, this is not the first time the Aral Sea has faced such a crisis. In the 15th century, the sea nearly dried up completely, forcing the local population to migrate. However, by the 16th century, the Aral Sea began to refill, eventually regaining its status as one of the world’s largest lakes. The Aral Sea originally formed millions of years ago due to a geological depression, and for centuries it was fed solely by the Syr Darya. When the Amu Darya changed course and began feeding into it, the sea expanded rapidly, eventually earning its place as the world’s fourth-largest lake.
While the current situation is dire, the history of the Aral Sea shows that recovery is possible. However, it will require significant, coordinated efforts from all the countries in the region, along with global support, to reverse the damage and prevent further environmental and humanitarian disasters.
